Strong southerlies and big ocean swell are shaping as the defining features of the opening stages of the 2025 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race, equating to a demanding first night at sea.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has warned crews to prepare for a sharp transition from Sydney Harbour sailing to full ocean conditions almost immediately after the start in the 80th edition of the classic 628 nautical mile race.
Addressing competitors at the Compulsory Race Briefing at the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia headquarters today, BOM meteorologist, Edward Townsend-Medlock, outlined a forecast dominated by a slow-moving high-pressure system sitting over Tasmania.
At the start cannon, conditions inside Sydney Harbour are expected to be relatively orderly but brisk.
Southerly winds in the 15–20 knot range will funnel through the harbour, enough to keep crews alert during the congested spinnaker start without creating the chaotic conditions seen in some recent editions.
Once in open water, the southerly flow is forecast to strengthen to 20–25 knots, with higher gusts possible. Importantly, the wind will be aligned with a significant south to south-easterly swell of around 2-3 metres.
While the official forecast refers to ‘significant wave height’, sailors were reminded that individual waves can reach close to double that height over a 24-hour period.
“That combination of strengthening winds and a mature swell from the south means it could get quite hairy quite quickly as boats exit the Heads,” Townsend-Medlock said, noting that hazardous surf warnings are likely to be issued for the NSW coast on race day.
For the first afternoon and evening, conditions are forecast to remain consistent along the NSW coast. Strong south to south/south-westerly winds of 20–25 knots are expected to extend well beyond Sydney, producing a relentless, physical first leg for crews settling into race mode.
The swell remains firmly in the 2-3 metre range during this period, with wind-driven waves stacking on top of the underlying ocean swell. This layering can create steep, awkward seas — particularly uncomfortable for boats pushing hard overnight.
By later Saturday, wind strength becomes more variable depending on distance offshore. Boats closer to the coast are likely to find lighter conditions, while those further east may still encounter fresh southerlies on the edge of the high-pressure system.
What is clear is that this year’s race will ask hard questions immediately.
Race start is 1 pm on 26 Dec Sydney, AUS . . . 2 am 26 Dec London UK (Boxing Day)
Steve Dettre/RSHYR
