RORC Transatlantic Race – Head south until the butter melts . . .

“If this were a holiday brochure there would be no question . . . head south until the butter melts.” commented British navigator Miles Seddon.

The eighth edition of the RORC Transatlantic Race will start from Lanzarote this Saturday (8 Jan) with a record RORC fleet presently making final preparations for the 3,000-mile race.

Race navigators are studying the latest weather models and the data is predicting a fast, potentially record-breaking race to Grenada. Four days before the start of the RORC Transatlantic Race, three top navigators express their predictions.

Seddon, on Peter Cunningham’s MOD70 PowerPlay, believes that the middle road doesn’t appear to be an option due to light winds. Given a free rein, the routing software favours the northerly option for best pressure for the longest period of time.

But that when you start to dig into the wave direction and sea state, it is less appealing, with the northerly route models developing a strong cold front pushing down from the north, with 30-40kn winds forecasted and temperatures in the low to mid-teens behind the front.

“It certainly has some warning bells attached to it at the moment,” he adds.

Favourite for the IMA Trophy is the 100ft Maxi Comanche, skippered by Mitch Booth.

Comanche is very capable of breaking the Monohull Race Record, set by Pier Luigi Loro Piana’s Supermaxi My Song in 2018 of 10 days 05 hrs 47 mins 11 secs.

Comanche’s Australian navigator Will Oxley has racked up 300,000 ocean miles, including three editions of The Ocean Race.

“It is still too far out, but at the moment there’s a suggestion that the southern route is not so good in terms of the trade winds. A couple of low-pressure systems are disrupting the Atlantic, so possibly a more northern route will be quicker.”

“Around start time we should get away in good pressure, but there’s a big low building up off Nova Scotia and it’s moving very fast. So, when we get closer to the race start, factors like sea state will influence our decisions.”

Oxley expects Comanche to rotate up into the front, which will be windy and unpleasant, before reaching away to tackle the next high pressure.

America’s Cup and 52 Super Series navigator Marc Lagesse is racing on German Botin’s 56 Black Pearl with Stefan Jentzsch at the helm.

“The short answer right now is north, but two days ago it was south. Yesterday it was 50/50 and now it’s north. The situation is very fluid and changing daily. North will be punchy, uncomfortable and cold. So, I am not too keen on that decision (he jokes).”

Lagesse adds, “To a large degree we will not let other boats influence us, but once we get out there and the race develops, the scenario may change that strategy. The calibre of the competition means that if they do something different, we will need to understand why.”